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Handbook of Warning Intelligence: Assessing the Threat to National Security was written during the cold war and was classified for 40 years. The majority of this manual, however, is now finally available to the general public. An abridged version, Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, was published, but this original document goes into much greater detail about the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting. It discusses military analysis, as well as the difficulties in understanding political, civil, and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment."
Much of what Grabo writes in her book seems to appear in many of the numerous commission reports that emerged after the 9/11 attacks. However, this book was written in response to the "surprise attack" of the Soviet Union's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. According to the author, that event was no surprise. And while analysts have to take some of the blame for their failure to strenuously present their case that the threat was real and imminent, what occurred was a failure by policymakers to listen to the warning intelligence reports that were written at the time.
- Sales Rank: #2541554 in Books
- Published on: 2010-03-16
- Released on: 2010-03-16
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.23" h x .79" w x 6.12" l, 1.11 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 326 pages
Review
The foreword provides interesting background on the hurtles to getting the still-relevant handbook declassified. (Book News, Inc.)
About the Author
Cynthia Grabo was an intelligence analyst from 1942 to 1979 and the first woman senior intelligence analyst at the Defense Intelligence Agency.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Common sense -- why was this book ever classified in the first place?
By VA customer
Cynthia Grabo wrote this book in her spare time while working for the CIA, and it became one of America's classic training manuals on risk assessment. For reasons never explained, the CIA printed under 500 copies, classified it as Top Secret, and used it as its training manual for risk assessment during the Cold War. Grabo had to get special permission just to check it out of the CIA's own library. Now it's public. It's still used in risk assessment courses at the Pentagon. It's mostly common sense. No wonder the USA has been so bad at risk assessment. The CIA has missed the overthrow of the Shah of Iran, the crumbling of the Soviet Union, the Rwandan genocide, and most of the other genocides of the 20th century, just to name a few intelligence failures. Since this book, there have been a few critiques that explain why it isn't very helpful. The one thing it gets right is that any good intelligence officer has to have the courage to oppose the accepted wisdom of his or her superiors.
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